Energy: A Systems Approach PART II. Electricity

Tick Tock! It’s time for a quick recap of Part I. 

In Part I, I introduced the systems-thinking framework for energy systems. To put it briefly, I sought to highlight the importance of applying complex system behaviours to energy systems research (Hodbod and Adger, 2014). Here’s a link to an example of how systems thinking is being currently applied for efficient energy planning.

>>>> http://www.smartsteep.eu/ <<<<

 The key point I wished to get across was the necessity to think about network design and resilience, particularly when considering energy systems of the future.  This is especially crucial for safeguarding against critical failures/outages and efficiently managing/forecasting supply and demand (Gharajedaghi, 2011). Bringing the ecological resilience concept into energy analytics is therefore very handy (Hodbod and Adger, 2014).

 What is resilience?

Resilience is a system property that describes the magnitude of change a system can experience before shifting into an alternative state (Walker et al, 2004). “Resilience has three components: the amount of disturbance a system can absorb and still remain in the same state; the degree to which the system is capable of self-organisation; and the degree to which the system can build up and increase the capacity for learning and adaptation” (Carpenter et al, 2001) cited by (Hodbod and Adger, 2014).

Resilience and emerging energy systems??

The aim is to build resilient energy systems that are robust and can adapt, learn and transform into new configurations (IEA, 2011). This is what is driving the development of Smart Grids…(read on to find out more!)….

Emerging energy systems present new sources of energy production and consumption and thus, we need to look into the thresholds, the distribution of benefits and risks, and the interaction with ecosystem dynamics on different scales (Chai and Yeo, 2012). 

What are the elements (Hodbod and Adger, 2014)?

- Technological and social (energy potential, scalability, supply variability, cost           effectiveness etc.)

-   Ecological variables (infrastructural impacts etc.).

-   Political and economic elements of energy systems.

This is where the application to electricity is tremendously relevant and from which I decided to write Part II.

For starters, the IEA’s EnergyTechnology Perspectives (ETP) 2014 talked about harnessing the potential of electricity for the future. In order to make the step towards a sustainable energy future, it is argued that:

“Electricity is an important vector in future energy systems.”

This is characterized on three main levels:

1. Power Generation: Deployment of sustainable technologies

2. Distribution

3. End-use consumption

The ETP (2014) provided some scenarios for possible energy futures to the year 2050. These scenarios are by no means certain, but are indicative of the possible outcomes from possible efforts to limit emissions.

Luckily for you, I arranged these into a wonderful table.

Table 1 (Source: IEA, 2014)

Scenario	What does it mean?
6°C Scenario (6DS)	- Extension of current trends. - By 2050, energy use almost doubles (compared with 2009) and total GHG emissions rise even more. - Absence of efforts to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations. - Average global temperature rise: projected to be at least 6°C.
4°C Scenario (4DS)	- Some effort to limit emissions. - Projecting a long-term temperature rise of 4°C. - Capping the temperature increase at 4°C requires significant additional cuts in emissions in the period after 2050.
2°C Scenario (2DS)	- Describes an energy system consistent with an emissions trajectory that recent climate science research indicates would give an 80% chance of limiting average global temperature increase to 2°C. - Target of cutting energy-related CO2 emissions by more than half in 2050 (compared with 2009). - Transformations in energy sector NOT sole solution. CO2 and GHG emissions in non-energy sectors must also be reduced.

Increased Electrification

Increased electrification is a driving force across the global energy system (Sugiyama,2012). To get to the point, the growth in electricity demand is far outpacing all other final energy carriers (IEA, 2014). This presents an opportunity to transform both energy supply and end-use.

Alongside the vast improvements in standards of living in emerging economies, demand for electricity has never been greater. To put this into perspective, if we were to compare regional growth rates in demand, growth rates from non-OECD regions reaches an astonishing 300%, whereas average demand growth from OECD countries is a mere 16% (IEA, 2014). The world is becoming increasingly connected and this unfortunately presents challenges to current infrastructures.

Will the future energy system be able to cope?

How can we design a system to facilitate sustainable energy technologies?

“Since the 1970s, electricity’s overall share of total energy demand has risen from 9% to over 17%. Across all scenarios globally, it climbs to 25%, while electricity demand grows by 80% in the 2DS and 130% in the 6DS by 2050.” - (IEA, 2014)

Emissions from electricity increased by 75% between 1990 and 2011 (IEA, 2014).

Assuming these trends continue, if a lassez-faire approach is taken, electricity-related emissions will inevitably escalate.

To summarise, the ETP 2014 concluded that the transition to electrification requires the implementation of decarbonisation and a large-scale reversal of the reliance on unabated fossil fuels for electricity generation.

“To meet 2DS targets, CO2 emissions per unit of electricity must decrease by 90% by 2050.” – IEA (2014).

To recap from Table 1, the 2DS represents the substantial reduction of emissions intensity, fuel imports and the improvements in end-use efficiencies to moderate growth of electricity demand (IEA, 2014).

It is not just alarming on an emissions-level…

Energy security risks and fuel supply volatility from an over-reliance on imported fossil fuels give a further reason for some countries to invest in the research and development of alternative energy sources (Jian, 2011). With an outlook into the future, this has been the focus of rapidly developing countries, as they seek to make their growth trajectories more sustainable. 

Figure 1. Total Electricity Demand and Electricity Share of Total Energy Demand across Non-OECD and OECD Countries for 4DS and 2DS (Source: IEA, 2014)

According to Figure 1, the growth in electricity demand from the non-OECD countries is projected to outpace the OECD countries. 

Despite these differences, I guess it’s obvious that the trend is heading towards an increasing share of electricity in the overall energy mix.

Energy Management for the Future

What can we conclude from these trends?

1. “Electricity is an important vector in future energy systems.” – (IEA, 2014)

Energy management must look into:

- Power Generation: Deployment of sustainable technologies

- Distribution

- End-use consumption

2. Efforts to decarbonize the electricity sector, especially reducing emissions from end-use sectors, may deliver spillover effects and can minimize the need for further investments in end-use (IEA, 2014). Improving the efficiency of consumption and applying demand-side management can limit the need for capacity expansion and reduce investment costs across the electricity chain (Lund et al, 2012).

3. The systems-thinking framework is useful to optimise cross-sector integration (Clastres, 2011).

Figure 2. Integrated and intelligent electricity system of the future (IEA, 2011)

Sooo, smart grids??? The concept of ‘Smart Grids’ has been sprinkled here and there in energy future discussions. The IEA (2011) defined a smart grid as “an electricity network that uses digital and other advanced technologies to monitor and manage the transport of electricity…Smart Grids co-ordinate the needs and capabilities of all generators, grid operators, end-users and electricity market stakeholders…”

Technologies can be deployed the following areas: generation, transmission and distribution (T&D) and consumption of electricity (IEA, 2014). The integration of all elements of the electricity system has the effect of increasing the complexity of the problem. 

However, I am optimistic that this can improve our understandings of the operations, efficiency and resilience, while helping advance ways to optimise energy resources and investments (Yu et al, 2011).

Ultimately, policy responses and technology choices are driven by economics, energy-security and energy-related environmental factors (Dorian etal, 2006).

PHEWWW!!!!!

So...just to re-iterate from my first few posts:

The key questions:

1. How can we begin to move away from fossil fuel dependency?

2. Given the complex set of needs, technologies and choices, how do we prepare for the future (Energy Technologies Institute, 2014)? 

Well...that's it from me for now. Over the next couple of weeks, I will be discussing different types of alternative technologies: Renewable energy technologies (solar, wind, biofuels etc.); negative emission technologies (carbon capture and storage etc.); transition energy (fuel cells, smart grids, energy-saving solutions etc.) and THE MYSTERY POST. 

So...I have a lot in store for you readers out there! 

“The struggle for existence is the struggle for available energy”.

(Ludwig Boltzmann)

“The only way to discover the limits of the possible is to go beyond them into the impossible.”

Arthur C. Clarke

References:

Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Anderies, J. M., & Abel, N. (2001). From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what?. Ecosystems, 4(8), 765-781.

Chai, K. H., & Yeo, C. (2012). Overcoming energy efficiency barriers through systems approach—a conceptual framework. Energy Policy, 46, 460-472.

Clastres, C. (2011). Smart grids: Another step towards competition, energy security and climate change objectives. Energy Policy, 39(9), 5399-5408.

Dorian et al (2006): Global challenges in energy.

Gharajedaghi, J. (2011). Systems thinking: Managing chaos and complexity: A platform for designing business architecture. Elsevier.

Hodbod, J., & Adger, W. N. (2014). Integrating social-ecological dynamics and resilience into energy systems research. Energy Research & Social Science, 1, 226-231.

Jian, Z. (2011). China's Energy Security: Prospects, Challenges, and Opportunities. Brookings Institution.

Lund, H., Andersen, A. N., Østergaard, P. A., Mathiesen, B. V., & Connolly, D. (2012). From electricity smart grids to smart energy systems–a market operation based approach and understanding. Energy, 42(1), 96-102.

Maani, K. E., & Maharaj, V. (2004). Links between systems thinking and complex decision making. System Dynamics Review, 20(1), 21-48.

Sugiyama, M. (2012). Climate change mitigation and electrification. Energy Policy, 44, 464-468.

Walker et al (2004) Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social– ecological Systems

Yu, X., Cecati, C., Dillon, T., & Simoes, M. G. (2011). The new frontier of smart grids. Industrial Electronics Magazine, IEEE, 5(3), 49-63.

There are various International Energy Agency (IEA) publications available. Read them to your heart’s desire!!